Competition on the web

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By 2020, the Russian online trade market may grow almost fivefold and reach $50 billion. This was the conclusion reached by participants of the Online Retail Russia forum , which took place in Moscow on December 6-7. At the same time, despite the skeptical forecasts of analysts regarding a gradual slowdown in market development, most players predict that online sales growth rates will remain at 20-30% annually.

Today, approximately 11 million people or 8% of the population of our country make purchases in online stores at least once a year, as noted by RBC.research. At the same time, the level of Internet penetration in Russia is much higher - 51%, so the number of buyers is much lower than the number of active Internet users. "The thing is that Internet users do not immediately become buyers," notes co-owner of East-West Digital News Adrian Henney. "They need some time to adapt. Currently, the nurses email database volume of sales on the Internet is only 1.5-2% of the total turnover of Russian retail trade, while in developed countries this share reaches 10%. " According to the Director of Development of eMoney News Vyacheslav Fedorov, the main reason that slows down the development of the market is the banal fear of the population to make purchases via the Internet or pay with bank cards. But even so, if in 2010 the share of online payments did not exceed 3-4%, now it has reached 5%. According to his estimates, in about 5-10 years it will be at least 50%.

e-commerce

The market has significant potential for extensive growth, according to senior analyst at RBC.research Sergey Khitrov. By 2014, the level of Internet penetration in Russia, according to the company's analysts, will increase to 64%, by 2018 - to 81%, by 2030 - will exceed 90%, and the number of online buyers will reach 70 million people. Only due to extensive development, the market can increase more than sixfold, RBC.research predicts.

According to the company's estimates, in just five years - from 2009 to 2013 - the volume of sales of goods, services and coupons via the Internet should triple from 210 to 641 billion rubles. In 2011, it increased by 39.5% and reached 406 billion rubles. According to the forecast of RBC.research, the market is indeed expecting a slowdown in development: already in 2012 it will grow by 26.2%, and in 2013 - by 25% and will amount to 641 billion rubles. Higher dynamics will be possible only if the average check and frequency of purchases increase. "If in 2011 online sales amounted to $10 billion, then in 2012 it will already be $13-14 billion," says Adrian Henny. "They grow by 20-30% annually."

During the interactive voting, the market participants themselves agreed that the pace of development will not slow down and will remain at the level of 25-35% per year. At the same time, the growth of leading players will be higher. E5.ru plans to increase sales by at least 100%, KupiVIP.ru - by 80-90%, Sotmarket - by 100%, Ozon.ru - by 50%, E96.ru - by 250%, Enter Svyaznoy - by 300-500%, Wikimart.ru - by 100-150%.

By 2020, according to East-West Digital News, the market could reach $50 billion, and in the longer term, $100 billion, but subject to two main conditions: an increase in the number of Internet users and the resolution of structural and infrastructural problems, in particular logistical ones.

While 65% of online sales are concentrated in Moscow, St. Petersburg and other cities with a population of over a million, the remaining cities (100,000+), where the vast majority of the country's population lives, account for only 35% of the market, calculated RBC.research. According to East-West Digital News, in 2011, Moscow accounted for 44.5% of online sales, and St. Petersburg - 10.5%. "Such small figures for regional sales illustrate serious problems with logistics," concludes Sergey Khitrov. "After all, it is precisely in the regions where the range of offline goods is very narrow that the need to make purchases online is high. But insufficient infrastructure does not always allow this to be done."